Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 17 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station during that calendar day. The market currently reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which range will capture the day's maximum reading.

Guangzhou's August temperatures have historically clustered in the 32–36°C range, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. Data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August typically represents the tail end of the summer monsoon season, when afternoon highs remain consistently elevated but extreme outliers become less frequent than in July. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders have not yet committed capital to any specific temperature band, making this an early-stage market with limited price discovery.

The key variable affecting settlement will be atmospheric conditions in the week preceding 17 August 2026—specifically, whether a Tibetan high-pressure system remains anchored over southern China or whether monsoon moisture penetrates the region. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in early August, particularly from the China National Weather Service, which typically issues 10-day outlooks that would cover this period. Any significant weather system tracking towards Guangzhou in the fortnight before settlement could shift probabilities materially, as could broader seasonal patterns emerging across East Asia during that window.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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