Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 1 July 2026 is entering its peak summer heatwave, with meteorological records confirming July as the city’s hottest month. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range appears misaligned with historical climatology, which shows daily highs consistently hovering near 32–33°C, rarely dipping below 29°C even during cloudy spells.

Historical data frames a stark contradiction to the 0% probability: on 1 July 2004, Guangzhou recorded its all-time highest temperature of 39.1°C at the Baiyun Airport station[5]. More broadly, July daily highs average around 32°C, with extremes frequently reaching 36–39°C, as the highest recorded July temperature in the city is approximately 39°C[2]. Recent years have seen China experience record-breaking heat, including July 2023 being the hottest month on record nationally[4], suggesting the 0% probability may underestimate the likelihood of extreme heat on this date.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Baiyun Airport station, as the settlement source relies exclusively on this data[6]. Key catalysts include the arrival of tropical moisture or convective systems, which can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or intensify heat via stagnant air masses. No official weather announcements are scheduled before 12:00 UTC on 1 July, but local meteorological bulletins from the Guangdong Meteorological Service may provide early indications of extreme heat risks, particularly if the region remains under a high-pressure ridge[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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