Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou experiences its peak summer heat in July, with the city routinely recording highs near 32°C as part of its typical monsoon-influenced climate. Historical data for the month shows average daily highs consistently reaching 32°C, while lows hover around 25°C, creating a humid and intense thermal environment [2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range or believe the market has mispriced the likelihood of extreme heat, though July 20 has historically fallen within the standard high-temperature band rather than producing record-breaking anomalies.

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, as settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at that specific location on 20 July 2026 [1]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in cloud cover, precipitation events, or tropical disturbances that could suppress temperatures below the seasonal average, as light rain and fog have already been noted in recent local conditions [1]. Since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, any late-morning heat spike or afternoon cooling trend will directly determine the resolving range, making hourly updates critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.