Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the resolution hinging on the maximum temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle up to that point, including morning and afternoon peaks typical of South China's subtropical climate.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 32–37°C range, with occasional excursions above 38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's coastal position and urban heat island effect create measurable day-to-day variability; airport station readings typically lag city-centre maxima by 1–2°C owing to less dense development. Comparable July records from the past decade show that extreme outliers above 39°C occur roughly once every three to four years, establishing a baseline for assessing probability distributions across temperature brackets.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid July, as storm systems can suppress daytime temperatures by 3–5°C through cloud cover and wind patterns. The China Meteorological Administration issues weekly forecasts and heat alerts; any official heat-wave warning issued in the fortnight preceding 21 July would signal elevated odds for higher temperature ranges. Additionally, the specific timing of any monsoon trough passage or upper-level ridge positioning in late June will shape atmospheric conditions, with ridge-dominated patterns typically producing the highest sustained maxima.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.