Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?

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Market context

Hong Kong is in a hot spell, and the question for settlement is whether the Hong Kong Observatory’s highest reading for 7 August lands in the band the market is offering. The Observatory’s morning forecast called for around 34°C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, and said some parts could reach 36°C or above later in the day, with very hot weather persisting through the following few days.[2]

That makes the current 0% crowd-implied probability look conservative against both the day-ahead guidance and the live readings already reported early in the session. By 10 a.m., the Observatory was already at 29°C at headquarters, while several inland and suburban stations were in the low 30s, including Tai Po, Tseung Kwan O, Wong Tai Sin and Kwun Tong at 32°C, with Sai Kung and Happy Valley also at 32°C.[3] The broader August climatology also supports a warm settlement: market weather forecasts cluster daytime highs around 30–32°C, with Hong Kong’s August average high near 31°C to 32°C and frequent humidity-driven heat.[1][13]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s remaining daytime updates, any heat or thunderstorm warnings, and whether the hottest reading comes from urban or New Territories stations rather than the headquarters site. Weather notices linked the heat to subsiding air around Typhoon Dolphin and warned that some areas could exceed 37°C from the weekend into early next week, which matters because the market resolves on the single highest recorded temperature on the date, not the citywide average.[4][9] The key dependency is simple: if the afternoon peak reaches the upper-30s, the market can move well above the lower ranges; if cloud, showers or earlier convection cap temperatures in the low 30s, the settlement band will stay tighter.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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