Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 28 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This reading forms the basis for settlement, with the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" figure from the Daily Extract serving as the definitive source once finalised.

July in Hong Kong typically sees daily maximum temperatures between 32°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that temperatures above 36°C are rare but not unprecedented during summer months. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending more specific temperature-range options. Comparable July dates in recent years provide the most relevant benchmark for calibrating expectations around likely ranges.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook and any issued heat warnings as July 2026 approaches. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July, meaning the market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data for that date, typically released within days of the observation period. Tropical storm activity or unusual atmospheric patterns in the weeks preceding the date could shift temperature probabilities materially, making regional weather forecasts from late June onwards a key dependency for position management.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.