Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, rounded to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes can extend beyond this band. Historical records show the territory experiences pre-monsoon heat buildup during mid-June, with occasional spikes driven by high-pressure systems or the approach of tropical weather patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature threshold options available or expect settlement data delays to prevent resolution. June is Hong Kong's transition month between spring and the onset of the southwest monsoon, making temperature forecasting inherently variable.

The key dependency for traders is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule. Data must be finalised and published in the Daily Extract before the market can settle; delays in official reporting could extend resolution beyond the settlement window close on 17 June at 12:00 UTC. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly for publication timelines and watch for any weather alerts issued in the days preceding the date, as unusual atmospheric conditions—such as tropical cyclone proximity or severe heat warnings—would signal atypical temperature outcomes. The specific temperature ranges offered in this market's options will ultimately determine which bracket the recorded maximum falls into.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.