Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 29 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single daily maximum will determine which temperature band resolves the market, with settlement occurring after the Observatory publishes its official daily extract for that date.

Hong Kong's late May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer. Historical data from the Observatory shows that 29 May typically records maxima between 29°C and 32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 33°C or above during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on available temperature bands or treating this as a placeholder market pending full range specifications. Comparable May dates over the past decade provide the most reliable reference points for calibrating expectations around seasonal norms versus anomalous heat events.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in April and early May 2026, which typically flag whether the month is tracking toward above-average or below-average temperatures. The presence of tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during late May can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over southern China tend to drive heat. The specific temperature bands offered by the market will crystallise trader positioning once published; currently the absence of defined ranges explains the flat probability distribution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.