Highest temperature in London on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport is forecast to reach a high of 27°C today, with sunny conditions and a moderate southerly breeze, yet the market assigns only a 3% probability to the temperature exceeding the settlement threshold implied by the current YES position. This low probability suggests traders believe the day will likely stay within a lower range, despite the 27°C forecast matching the frontrunner outcome in the broader Polymarket distribution for this date, which holds 52% of the volume [2][6].

Historically, July is London’s hottest month, averaging a high of 22°C (72°F), but extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures well above this baseline, with the city recording 40.2°C in July 2022 at nearby stations [1][5]. The current 3% YES probability appears to reflect caution about a repeat of such extremes, even as recent UK records show 35°C+ temperatures occurring in May, June, and July for the first time in the same year [4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today [2]. Any sudden shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or humidity could alter the peak temperature before the cutoff, and the Met Office has flagged that heatwave conditions remain possible this month [4]. With the forecast already indicating 27°C, the key dependency is whether the temperature sustains or dips below that mark before noon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.