Highest temperature in London on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature on 24 July will be set by the daytime peak at London City Airport Station, so the market is really about whether the city gets an ordinary July maximum or a sharper warm spell before the midday settlement cut-off. London’s July climate is usually warm rather than extreme, with an average high of 23.2C, but the distribution can widen quickly when high pressure settles in.[1]

The 0% YES price implies the crowd is treating a very hot outcome as highly unlikely, which is consistent with the fact that London’s July norm sits well below the upper 20s and low 30s.[1] That said, recent British summers have shown that temperature records can be vulnerable when the broader pattern turns hot: England just had its warmest June on record, underlining that unusually warm months are still possible when the atmosphere lines up.[3]

Traders should watch the Met Office forecast for south-east England, especially any short-notice upgrade to maximum temperatures, because even a one- or two-day hot spell can lift the day’s peak sharply before the market’s settlement window closes. The most relevant catalyst is whether cloud, rain or a marine breeze caps the daytime high at the airport; London’s July average rainfall is modest overall, but showers and frontal changes can still interrupt a hotter run.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.