Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Market context

Los Angeles experiences peak late-spring temperatures in late May, with historical highs typically ranging from the mid-80s to low 90s Fahrenheit at LAX. The airport's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland valleys, though Santa Ana wind patterns occasionally push readings higher. May 26th falls within a period when daytime maximums average around 75–80°F, though variability is substantial year-on-year depending on upper-level atmospheric patterns and marine layer persistence.

Historical data from Wunderground shows May 26th highs at LAX have ranged considerably. In recent decades, readings have fallen between 72°F and 88°F on this specific date, with no extreme outliers recorded. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where temperatures remain unusually cool or moderate—plausible given the marine influence that frequently caps coastal Los Angeles temperatures even during warmer months. Comparable late-May days at LAX rarely exceed 90°F unless unusual heat advection occurs.

The primary catalyst affecting settlement will be upper-level ridge positioning and marine layer depth during the forecast period. The National Weather Service's extended outlook for late May 2026 remains months away, but traders should monitor spring pattern trends and any anomalous warming signals emerging in seasonal forecasts. Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded high at KLAX station, which typically updates by early evening local time on May 26th.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.