Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, with current crowd-implied probability suggesting a 0% chance of the outcome falling within the specific range queried. Historical data frames this probability sharply: June in Manila typically sees daily highs between 84°F and 95°F (29–35°C), rarely dipping below 84°F [2]. Recent records show Metro Manila hit 36.0°C at NAIA yesterday, while the all-time record for the airport station reached 38.8°C in April 2024 [3][5]. PAGASA’s short-range guidance currently projects 25–33°C, aligning with trader consensus favouring 29–31°C outcomes elsewhere [1].

Traders must monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s live NAIA feed as the settlement window closes, since sudden tropical squalls or heat dome intensification could shift the maximum temperature outside expected bands [1]. The primary dependency is the official Wunderground record for the highest temperature at NAIA on that specific date, which will be the sole resolution source [1]. No major coaching changes or key absences apply here, but meteorological volatility remains the critical catalyst; any announcement of a developing low-pressure system near the Philippines could drastically alter the peak temperature forecast [6]. Watch for real-time updates from PAGASA and Wunderground, as these are the definitive sources for the final resolution [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.