Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s hottest reading on 1 August will depend on whether the day develops into a warm, dry afternoon or stays capped by cloud and showers. Seasonal climate data point to a typical Munich August high around 24–25°C, with most days clustering in the low-to-mid 20s rather than near the upper 20s. Munich’s August 2026 forecast also shows daily highs ranging from 69°F to 81°F, which puts the market squarely in a modest-summer-temperature band rather than a true heatwave setup.[1][2][5]

The current 1% YES price implies traders are treating an unusually hot outcome as a remote tail event. That is consistent with Munich’s history: August normals sit around 23–24°C, while published historical records for the month show occasional spikes up to 38°C, but those are outliers rather than the baseline.[6][8][7] For comparison, climate tables for Munich show the monthly peak daily highs in August are typically around 32°C, with only rare excursions above the mid-30s.[7]

What matters most for this market is the short-range forecast into the afternoon of 1 August, especially any upgrade in maximum temperature, sunshine, or föhn-like drying that could lift the day’s high at the airport station. The settlement source is Munich Airport Station on Wunderground, so the relevant catalyst is the airport-specific hourly evolution rather than the city centre reading; a late-morning cloud break or a surprise convective spike would matter more than the earlier overnight conditions.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.