Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich is currently experiencing sunny conditions with a high of 28°C on Sunday, 12 July, matching the crowd’s dominant expectation for this date [6][7]. Historical data for Munich International Airport in July shows daily highs typically range between 22°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 31°C or falling below 16°C [1][4]. The market’s 0% probability for any outcome other than the frontrunner suggests traders view 28°C as the near-certain resolution, consistent with recent patterns where July 11 hit 30°C and July 9 markets also leaned heavily toward 28°C [2][3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) via Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today [2]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, wind direction, or humidity could alter the peak temperature, though current forecasts indicate stable sunny conditions with light northeast winds [7]. The German Weather Service (DWD) has recently reported record heat across Germany, including a national high of 41.7°C, which may increase volatility if regional heatwaves intensify unexpectedly [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.