Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026, using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source. New York City's August temperatures typically range from 75°F to 88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-90s. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside whatever upper threshold defines the YES resolution range, though the specific boundary has not been disclosed in the market description provided.

Historical August data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur roughly once every two to three years during the month, whilst readings above 95°F are considerably rarer. The 2019 heat wave saw temperatures reach 92°F, and the summer of 2022 produced several days above 90°F. August 11 specifically has seen highs ranging from 78°F to 91°F over the past two decades, placing it near the middle of the month's typical temperature distribution rather than at either extreme.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or heat domes affecting the north-eastern United States. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days in advance, which will provide the most reliable guidance for late-summer conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the position of the jet stream in early August will influence whether anomalous heat reaches the region, though such forecasts remain inherently uncertain at present.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.