Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 18 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd probability of 1% YES suggests traders expect temperatures to remain within a lower range on that date.

New York's August temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme highs above 95°F occurring in roughly 5–10% of August days over the past three decades. The record high for any August day at the airport stands at 100°F, set in 1933. Recent August patterns show that temperatures exceeding 90°F happen irregularly; the 2023 and 2024 August periods saw multiple days above 90°F, whilst 2022 remained cooler. The 1% probability implies traders are pricing in a scenario where 18 August 2026 falls outside the typical warm-day range, suggesting either an unusually cool pattern or a specific threshold the market is testing.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate forecasts released in July 2026, which typically provide 30-day outlooks for temperature anomalies. The Atlantic hurricane season activity and any tropical systems approaching the Northeast in mid-August could suppress temperatures significantly. Additionally, the specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—means traders should familiarise themselves with how Weather Underground records intraday readings at LaGuardia, as discrepancies between observation tables and summary figures occasionally occur and could affect settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.