Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature bracket will contain the highest reading recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 August 2026. Resolution depends on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, meaning intraday peak temperatures take precedence over reported highs. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

New York's August temperatures typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with historical August 19 highs clustering around 82–86°F at LaGuardia. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting bracket specifications or treating this as a placeholder market. Comparable August dates show occasional excursions above 90°F during heat waves, though such events occur in roughly 15–20% of years. The current probability assignment appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either missing bracket details or early-stage market formation.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 19 August 2026, as these will clarify whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns are expected. LaGuardia's urban heat island effect typically elevates readings 2–4°F above surrounding areas. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official NWS data—creates a minor dependency on that platform's sensor calibration and reporting consistency. Any announced maintenance or sensor changes at the station would merit attention before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.