Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s temperature will be set by the warmest reading recorded there on 2 August, and the current crowd price of 0% for the listed **YES** side suggests traders do not see a decisive upside scenario. The contract resolves from Weather Underground’s LaGuardia Airport Station data, so the key number is the station high rather than a city-wide average or Central Park reading.[3]

August highs in New York are often modestly warm rather than extreme, with long-run daily maxima in the upper 20s Celsius and comparable forecasts clustering around the low 80s Fahrenheit, which sits in the middle of the market’s outcome bands.[10][11] That matters because the market has already seen genuine heat volatility this summer: New York reached 100°F on 2 July, while LaGuardia itself hit 104°F that day, showing the station can run several degrees hotter than the city’s official core reading when a heat dome sets in.[18][7]

The main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak, any late-breaking thunderstorm or sea-breeze shift, and whether official weather updates confirm the final daily observation after the settlement window closes.[3] Traders should watch the Weather Underground history page for the LaGuardia station and any short-term forecast updates from local outlets or the National Weather Service, because a brief surge above 82°F or 84°F would move the result into a higher band even if most of the day stays near seasonal norms.[2][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.