Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

La Guardia’s midday-to-afternoon peak on 25 August sat in the upper 70s to around 80 Fahrenheit, with the latest NOAA-derived read at 7:51 pm EDT showing 78.1°F and a 6-hour high of 80.1°F. That leaves the market’s 0% yes pricing consistent with a day that never reached the kind of extreme heat needed to shift the highest-temperature band materially upward.[2]

Recent comparable readings suggest the upside was capped rather than open-ended. NWS forecast material for the New York area called for a mostly dry, warm Tuesday with sunshine, while nearby hourly forecasts showed temperatures topping out around 77-79°F rather than breaking into the mid-80s.[3][9][11] AccuWeather’s La Guardia and New York City pages also pointed to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, which fits a settled range close to the observed 80.1°F peak.[10][13][14]

For traders, the key catalyst is not a late-day headline but the NOAA hourly data itself, because settlement depends on the single highest reading recorded at KLGA on 25 August.[7] The main dependency is whether the official hourly series ever printed above 80.1°F during the daytime window; absent a late spike, the market should resolve within the lower temperature bands already implied by the live reading and short-range forecasts.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.