Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s observed high for 3 August will decide this market, and the current 0% implied chance of the top range suggests traders are treating an outlier afternoon as very unlikely. The market page itself points to National Weather Service and model guidance clustered around an 82–85°F daytime high for New York City, which would leave the outcome in the middle bands rather than at the extremes.[1]

That cautious pricing is consistent with New York’s late-summer norm: August highs around the low-80s are ordinary, and recent local climate data show values near that level rather than persistent mid- to upper-80s heat.[6][16] On the same market page, the leading brackets were 82–83°F at 35% and 84–85°F at 33%, with 86–87°F down at 8% and 73°F or below below 1%, indicating the crowd sees the forecast as fairly tightly grouped around the seasonal average.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual evolution at LaGuardia rather than citywide averages: early cloud cover, showers, or a marine flow can cap the high, while a clearer, drier afternoon can push the reading into the higher band. A CBS New York weather report flagged a storm threat and flash-flood risk across the NYC area on Monday, underlining how quickly rainfall and instability can alter the temperature ceiling.[7] Traders should also watch for any late forecast changes from the National Weather Service product feed or updated weather-model guidance, because the market uses the airport station’s final recorded high rather than a forecasted citywide figure.[1][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.