Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s heat profile for 7 August points to a warm, but not extreme, finish to the day, with the market resolving off the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for LaGuardia rather than a headline summary figure. The crowd’s 0% YES implies traders are effectively pricing the top bracket as out of reach, yet late-summer New York often sees temperatures cluster tightly around the upper 80s to low 90s, so the outcome will turn on whether the airport station briefly crept into the 90s rather than on the more polished day-high display.[13][4]

That matters because the comparable case for this kind of market is usually a narrow spread between neighbouring bins, not a binary hot-or-cold call. Current public-facing forecast products for the date pointed to highs around the mid-to-upper 80s, while broader market listings showed most interest concentrated in the 88–93°F bands, with 90–91°F leading the pricing before settlement.[2][3][7] Weather Underground’s own history page for 7 August already shows an 82°F report at JFK, underscoring how airport stations can differ materially across the city and why LaGuardia’s final observation is the key dependency.[4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final hourly observations from LaGuardia and any overnight or early-morning revisions before the first datapoint for the following day is published, since the market rules allow updates until that cutoff.[2] The other watchpoint is whether a late-afternoon shower or thunderstorm suppresses the peak, as the forecast discussion around the date highlighted only a slight convective risk under mostly sunny conditions.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.