Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s late-summer heat has already pushed this market into the mid-90s Fahrenheit on the confidence scale, because Weather Underground’s LaGuardia reading is the settlement source and recent guidance has pointed to a daily high around 90°F rather than a cooler near-normal day. The market has been pricing the 90-91°F band as the most likely result, with 92-93°F also drawing meaningful interest, which is consistent with a warm, stable August setup rather than a marginal day on the edge of the 80s.[1][10]

Historically, August in New York often sits close to the low 80s at Central Park, but LaGuardia can run a touch hotter on favourable southerly flow and strong sun. That is why a 0% yes price is hard to read as a true forecast of impossibility: it usually reflects a stale or mispriced contract before the final observation is locked in, especially when the day has already delivered a warm afternoon and the official table can still be revised until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[1][3]

The main things to watch are the final hourly observations at KLGA, any late-afternoon marine influence from the harbour breeze, and whether temperatures peak before or after the market’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Weather Underground’s daily table, not the summary high/low box, is decisive, so traders will care about the exact highest printed value and whether any post-publication correction appears before the next day’s first data point.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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