Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. LaGuardia's official weather station provides the baseline measurement used across meteorological records and public forecasting services. July represents the peak of New York City's summer heat season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 82–88°F, though extreme heat events can push readings into the low 90s.

New York's July temperatures have shown notable variability across recent decades. The National Weather Service records indicate that 21 July has historically seen highs between 79–91°F at LaGuardia since systematic recording began. The city experienced a heat dome in July 2019 that drove temperatures to 92°F, whilst cooler patterns in July 2015 kept highs near 79°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller specification of the settlement bands.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks released in spring 2026, which typically forecast whether the summer will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. Real-time forecasts become actionable roughly 10 days before the settlement date. Wunderground's historical data archive will be the definitive source; traders should verify the station selection remains LaGuardia (KLGA) rather than other NYC-area stations like JFK or Newark, as readings can differ by several degrees depending on local geography and urban heat effects.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.