Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the peak temperature reached during that calendar day in Fahrenheit.

July in New York typically sees daily highs between 82–88°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s. Historical records from LaGuardia show that extreme heat—temperatures above 95°F—occurs roughly once every three to five years during mid-to-late July. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for additional context or treating this as a straightforward seasonal weather event without unusual atmospheric conditions currently forecast. Comparable July days at LaGuardia over the past decade have ranged from 79°F on cooler days to 94°F during heat waves, establishing a practical baseline for assessing which temperature bracket is most probable.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts and longer-range climate models as July 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for heat domes or Atlantic ridge patterns that could elevate temperatures significantly above seasonal norms. Tropical storm activity in early July could also influence atmospheric conditions and humidity levels affecting the final reading. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's historical data for KLGA—is publicly accessible, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology or station location once the date passes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.