Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s recorded high on 26 July will settle this market, and the current 0% YES implies traders are assigning no chance to the relevant outcome range at present. That is an unusually weak price for a late-July New York temperature event, because LaGuardia is one of the city’s warmer official observing points on sunny summer days and hourly weather for 26 July 2026 showed a clear, warm setup with a forecast high around 28°C, or 82°F, in central New York City conditions.[1][2]

Historically, markets on summer New York highs tend to cluster around the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit unless there is a sharp heat spike or an abrupt marine influence. Polymarket’s live distribution for this event has 84-85°F as the leading band at 41%, with 82-83°F close behind at 36%, which suggests traders were expecting a relatively narrow spread around the mid-80s rather than a blowout hot or cool day.[1] That backdrop makes a 0% YES reading look more like a thin market or stale pricing than a consensus view of an extreme forecast.

The main catalysts to watch are the terminal-day forecast updates, any heat advisories or changes in cloud cover and wind, and whether a cooler marine layer reaches LaGuardia during the afternoon peak. Wego’s NYC heat-wave coverage notes that forecasters had warned of highs reaching 104-112°F in broader city and Tri-State heat events, but that is a regional warning rather than a station-specific reading, so the key dependency remains the LaGuardia station’s actual afternoon maximum on the day.[3] If later synoptic updates point to stronger onshore flow, lower the expected high can move quickly; if sunshine and light winds hold, the mid-80s bands remain the most relevant comparison point.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.