Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement will turn on the day’s peak reading at LaGuardia Airport, so the key question is whether New York gets a genuinely hot late-July afternoon or just a routine summer maximum. On the evidence available, the market is pricing in an outcome well below the upper end of the historical range, with recent New York City heat episodes showing how quickly the odds can shift when a strong ridge and humid air mass combine to push airport temperatures towards triple digits.[3][8][18]

For context, New York’s long-run extremes are much higher than a typical July day: Central Park’s all-time record is 106°F, and LaGuardia has reportedly reached 107°F on 3 July 1966, though that is a different station from the one used here.[8][14] More relevant to traders, recent summers have still produced 100°F readings in the city area, including Central Park’s first triple-digit day since 2012 on 3 July 2026 and JFK’s simultaneous 100°F mark, which shows that extreme heat remains plausible even late in the season if the synoptic set-up is favourable.[17][18]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast, any heat advisories or cooling-centre announcements from local officials, and the position of the jet stream and Bermuda high in the days immediately before settlement. The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 30 July at LaGuardia, so a brief early-afternoon spike matters more than the day’s average, and airport-specific readings can differ from Central Park by several degrees depending on wind direction and sea-breeze penetration.[5][6][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.