Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

A record-breaking heatwave has engulfed New York City, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 102°F on Thursday, shattering the daily high-temperature record and leaving the airport at 94°F at midnight, the warmest midnight ever recorded for the city[1][3]. This extreme event, where heat lingered into the night with dew points back in the 70s, has pushed heat indexes to their highest levels of the day across both LaGuardia and Newark, where temperatures reached 104°F[7]. The settlement window for this prediction market closes on 5 July 2026, capturing the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia for all times on that specific day.

Historically, July 5 in New York has seen peaks as high as 100°F in 1999, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests traders are betting against the upper temperature ranges despite the recent 102°F spike[1][8]. The 84–85°F range currently sits at 34.5% odds, driven by the NWS Central Park forecast and thin trading volume, indicating a market that is cautious about the persistence of this heatwave into the settlement date[2]. Traders should watch for official announcements from the National Weather Service regarding the continuation of the heat advisory and any scheduled cooling systems that might mitigate temperatures before the 5 July deadline[6]. The key dependency is whether the current record-setting heat, which broke the 2013 midnight record of 93°F, will sustain or dissipate before the market resolves[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.