Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, with current models projecting a high near 82–85°F. Historical climate normals for this date show a maximum of 84°F in 2025, while the average June high sits at 85°F[1][5]. Recent adjacent markets confirm this trend: the 23 June market resolved to 74–75°F, a cooler outlier, whereas the broader 24 June consensus now heavily favours the 82–83°F range at 99% probability[2][3]. The 0% YES crowd-implied probability for higher ranges reflects a market that has already priced in a moderate summer day, aligning with the forecasted 77–92°F daily range for the month[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and wind shifts from the south could push temperatures toward the 84–85°F bracket[2][6]. The National Weather Service’s climatological data indicates that late-June periods often see highs averaging 73.4°F, but the 21–30 June window is typically the hottest, suggesting a potential upward catalyst if humidity rises[8]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on the specific 12:00 UTC settlement window means any afternoon spike after 08:00 EDT will be decisive[2]. Watch for sudden shifts in the SSE wind pattern noted in recent hourly logs, which could alter the peak temperature before the market closes[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.