Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City recorded a peak temperature of 82–83°F, aligning with the intense heatwave that gripped the Northeast earlier in the month. This outcome reflects a consistent pattern of summery conditions in the region, where temperatures have frequently surged well above seasonal averages due to strong sunshine, elevated humidity, and light winds limiting cooling relief.

Historical data from recent June days shows similar thermal behaviour: on 7 June, key reporting stations including LaGuardia recorded 80–81°F, while the week of 21 June saw scorching highs with heat indices feeling even hotter due to oppressive moisture. The 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges is therefore well-supported, as comparable cases consistently place the maximum in the mid-80s rather than below 73°F.

Traders should monitor official climatological summaries from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Weather Underground, which serve as the definitive resolution sources. With excessive heat warnings issued across almost every county in the Northeast and cooling centres open in libraries and community centres, the meteorological dependencies point firmly toward sustained high temperatures rather than abrupt cooling. No sudden cold fronts or thunderstorm clusters disrupted the heat on 26 June, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the 82–83°F outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.