Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’ August peak temperature is usually set by a handful of warm afternoons rather than sustained extreme heat, and early-August climatology points to mid-to-high 20s Celsius more often than anything exceptional. Long-run August data for Paris show average highs around 25–26°C, while the historical record for the month sits near 39–40°C, so a 0% yes price implies the market is effectively treating a very hot-outlier outcome as negligible rather than impossible.[13][15][12]

That framing matters because 1 August has produced some notably warm Paris readings before, including 35.5°C on 1 August 2013 at the Paris records site, but the usual spread is much lower and often sits close to the low-to-mid 20s Celsius.[3][1] Recent market pricing on the exchange also clusters around 28°C and 29°C, which is consistent with summer norms rather than a heatwave-level print.[10]

For traders, the key catalysts are the short-range forecast updates and any late-arriving warm spell over northern France, especially if the synoptic pattern turns to persistent high pressure. Contemporary reporting has already pointed to intensifying heat across France in recent days, with highs above seasonal averages in several regions, so shifts in Météo-France or city-level forecast guidance could matter if they extend towards Paris in the run-up to the settlement window.[7][19] Any change in cloud cover, wind direction or moisture could also move the daily maximum at Paris-Le Bourget Airport enough to alter which Celsius band the day ends in.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.