Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station will record the highest temperature on 19 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. This distinction matters because intraday peak readings can differ from headline high-low ranges, particularly during rapid temperature swings common in late summer.

August temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget historically cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, though extremes have reached 35°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris record 40.3°C, whilst more recent Augusts (2022, 2023) produced peaks near 30–32°C. Current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either a narrow resolution band or scepticism about extreme heat materialising. Historical frequency data shows temperatures above 32°C occur roughly once per decade in August at this station, making very high thresholds statistically unlikely but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-August onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which typically issue reliable 10-day outlooks by early August. Heat wave alerts and atmospheric pressure patterns over Western Europe in the preceding weeks will signal whether conditions favour above-average temperatures. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative meteorological sources—means verifying data availability and station continuity closer to the settlement date remains essential, as any station maintenance or data gaps could affect resolution.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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