Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 21 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd probability of 1% suggests traders expect a relatively moderate peak temperature that day, placing the outcome in a lower range than extreme heat scenarios.

August temperatures at Le Bourget typically peak between 24–27°C, with historical data showing that days exceeding 30°C occur in roughly 15–20% of August observations across a multi-decade sample. The 1% probability implies the market is pricing in an outcome well below the station's August mean, which hovers around 25.5°C. Previous extreme heat events in the Paris region—such as August 2003 when temperatures reached 38°C—remain outliers; more recent Augusts have shown greater variability, with 2022 reaching 35°C and 2023 remaining closer to seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-August 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which typically issue reliable 10-day outlooks by mid-month. Any significant Atlantic weather system or heat dome tracking towards continental Europe in late August could shift probabilities materially. The specific reliance on Le Bourget's Daily Observations table—rather than broader Paris readings—means local airport conditions, including any temporary measurement anomalies, become the decisive factor for settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.