Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on whether Qingdao’s highest temperature on 29 June 2026 reaches 29°C at the Jiaodong International Airport station, a threshold currently assigned only a 2% chance by the crowd. Historical data for June in Qingdao shows average highs between 22°C and 26°C, with 29 June typically recording around 25.6°C[1][7]. While some days can climb to 35°C, such extremes are rare and usually occur later in summer, not in early June when coastal breezes and frequent cloud cover keep temperatures moderate[1][4]. The 2% probability aligns with comparable years where highs rarely exceeded 28°C before late July.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the airport station on 29 June, as the market resolves solely on its reported daily maximum[1]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in wind patterns, unexpected heatwaves from inland Shandong, or unseasonal clear skies that could push temperatures higher[2]. AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast suggests daily highs between 27°C and 30°C, but notes these are upper bounds, not averages[2]. Any official weather bulletins from China’s Meteorological Administration regarding extreme heat warnings for Qingdao on that day would be critical to watch, as they often precede temperature spikes[2]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so real-time data after 06:00 UTC will determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 29?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.