Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 5?

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Market context

San Francisco International Airport’s high for 5 August 2026 will be set by the warmest reading recorded during the day at KSFO, so the market is really a read on whether the airport’s temperature peaked in the low 70s or managed to push a little higher. The crowd is clustering around **72–73°F** at 51%, with **74–75°F** next at 21%, which implies traders see a modestly warm but not exceptional summer day at the airport.[1]

For context, August in San Francisco is usually seasonally mild rather than hot, and forecast services for early August commonly point to daytime highs in the mid-60s to around 70°F rather than sustained heat. That makes the current 0% YES framing on the event’s other outcomes unsurprising if the market is effectively discounting a hotter-than-normal airport reading; the key question is whether local warming at KSFO was enough to lift the daily maximum into the higher bands.[2][3][10]

The main catalysts are the actual hourly observations from KSFO and any late-day coastal warming or onshore wind changes that can nudge the airport high by a degree or two. Traders should also watch for Bay Area heat advisories or broader regional heat build-ups, because those can raise the odds of a brief spike even when the city proper stays comparatively cool; the National Weather Service and local forecast coverage are the most relevant sources for that setup.[14][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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