Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 10 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The resolution window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full daily high must be established before settlement.

Seattle's August climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, with historical data from the airport showing August averages around 79°F. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 90°F—occur infrequently in the Seattle area during August, with the airport recording such peaks only sporadically over recent decades. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the temperature will remain below the lowest available range option, reflecting typical seasonal patterns for the region.

Traders monitoring this market should track Pacific Northwest weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, as atmospheric patterns establishing themselves weeks before August can signal whether anomalous heat systems might affect the region. The National Weather Service Seattle office issues extended outlooks that often prove reliable for August conditions. Any significant heat dome or ridge of high pressure developing over the western United States in late July would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities upward. Local reporting from Seattle news outlets will provide real-time temperature observations as 10 August approaches, though the Weather Underground Daily Observations table remains the binding resolution source regardless of other reported figures.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.