Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 16 August 2026, measured against specified temperature ranges in Fahrenheit. Resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, ensuring precision in settlement.

Historical August temperatures at Sea-Tac show a median high around 79°F, with records reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The station's 30-year average for mid-August sits near 78–80°F. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 90°F—occur roughly once every five to seven years in the Seattle area during summer months. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where August 16, 2026 falls well below any threshold under consideration, or that the market's temperature bands are pitched at unusually high levels relative to climatological norms for that date.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts beginning in late July 2026, particularly atmospheric pressure patterns and ridge positioning over the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days ahead with increasing confidence. Any significant high-pressure system or heat dome tracking toward the region would shift probabilities materially. Sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and any El Niño or La Niña conditions active during summer 2026 could influence regional weather persistence. Real-time forecast updates from the National Weather Service Seattle office will provide the most actionable signals as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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