Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s highest temperature on 22 July is the event that will settle this market, and the current 0% yes price points to a very low assumed chance that the day’s peak lands in the specified range. That is a much colder stance than the broader summer pattern in Seattle, where July normally produces highs around the mid-70s Fahrenheit, making anything in the 90s a clear outlier rather than a baseline outcome.[3][1]

For framing, the market’s current pricing is inconsistent with the kind of hot spell that has occasionally driven Seattle into record territory. On days when the city gets a strong inland push and clear skies, highs can jump well above seasonal norms, and the present book already leans towards upper-80s to low-90s outcomes rather than cooler ranges.[1] The key historical lesson is that Seattle heat is usually driven by a short-lived synoptic set-up, so traders should treat the probability as highly sensitive to whether the station sits under a persistent ridge, not to the average July climate.[3][4]

The main catalyst to watch is the evolving forecast for Sea-Tac specifically, because the settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, not a citywide average.[1] In practice, that means late updates on cloud cover, marine push timing, and any heat-advisory-grade warmth in the final forecast cycle matter most, since a modest shift of a degree or two can move the outcome between adjacent bands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.