Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

South Korea’s ongoing heatwave is the real-world driver for this market, and the first reading of August has already started hot: Incheon was 26.8°C at 9 a.m., while Seoul’s minimum was 27.4°C, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration as reported in *Chosun*. [1] Reuters said South Korea set a modern-era national temperature record of 41.4°C in Yangsan on 31 July, underlining how exceptional the current air mass is. [6]

That backdrop matters because early-August Seoul and Incheon typically sit much lower than the extremes now being discussed, with climatological guides putting average August highs around 29°C for both cities and Incheon’s monthly range usually well short of the current heatwave peaks. [5][12][19] Forecast services also point to a hot start to the month, with Seoul’s August outlook showing highs in the low 30s Fahrenheit-to-Celsius equivalents and local reporting expecting daytime highs of 36°C in Seoul and 34°C in Incheon on 1 August. [2][8][16] The market’s 0% “YES” price implies traders see no realistic path to an unusually low cap, so attention sits on whether the day’s maximum reaches the upper 30s or stays a few degrees lower. [16]

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon KMA updates, the strength of the heat advisory, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover trims the peak around Incheon International Airport later in the day. [1][4][11] The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station by 12:00 UTC, so the relevant dependency is the site’s official daily maximum rather than Seoul city temperatures or the first morning observations. [11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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