Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?

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Market context

The temperature at Incheon International Airport is forecast to be unusually high for early August, with Seoul metro-area heatwave warnings in force and local reporting pointing to a daytime maximum around 38°C for Incheon and 39°C for Seoul. That makes the market’s current **0% YES** pricing hard to reconcile with the live weather setup, because the listed settlement source is the day’s *highest recorded temperature* at the airport station, not an average or overnight low.[2][3]

Historically, early-August highs in Seoul usually sit much lower, with August average highs around the mid-20s Celsius to low-30s Fahrenheit equivalent in general forecast models, while the annual August peak climatology is concentrated around 6 August. But this year’s pattern is closer to the extreme end: one report says Seoul has only exceeded 39°C once in modern observations, at 39.6°C on 1 August 2018, underscoring that a reading in the high-30s is rare but not unprecedented.[1][10][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration updates, any shift in the heatwave warning, and whether afternoon cloud, rain, or coastal winds limit the airport station’s actual peak versus surrounding inland readings. Reuters-style or beat-reporting coverage is not in the supplied set, but contemporaneous local coverage says the heat should persist through today, with some easing only from the weekend as easterly winds weaken.[2][3] In practical terms, the market will turn on whether Incheon gets a clean, dry maximum close to forecast, or whether showers and maritime influence shave the recorded top temperature below the upper forecast range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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