Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

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Market context

Seoul’s temperature market is anchored to the hottest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 7 August, so the key question is whether the airport briefly gets into the upper 30s Celsius or stays closer to the mid-30s. Local reporting on 7 August said Seoul was expected to reach 39°C, with heatwave warnings expanded across the Greater Seoul area, while the previous day had already topped 37.9°C, a level that suggests the air mass was unusually hot before any afternoon peak was recorded.[1]

That setup makes the current **0% YES** price look harsh only if one treats the market as a proxy for Seoul city highs; comparable August climatology is much lower, with average highs around 84°F/29°C and typical daily ranges in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius on forecast sites.[2][13][18] For an airport-based settlement, the historical analogue is a day that runs hot but does not quite match the headline city forecast, especially when coastal or inland winds prevent the absolute maximum from holding long enough to be the day’s top reading.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the strength and timing of the heat peak, any late-day convection, and whether the warning area broadens or eases after midday. The SBS report said conditions were expected to improve slightly from tomorrow, which implies the highest risk for a very high reading is early in the day rather than after sunset, and current forecast products still show Seoul with hot, humid conditions and at least some rain risk.[1][3][14] Traders should watch any updated Korea Meteorological Administration advisories and the station-level Wunderground observation feed, because a one-hour spike at the airport is what ultimately matters for settlement.[5][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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