Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a historic heatwave, with nighttime temperatures breaking a century-old record for 22 consecutive tropical nights above 25°C[1][3]. This extreme thermal persistence frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a high July 10 temperature as potentially premature, given that South Korea recently set an all-time heat record of 41.0°C at Hongcheon and reached 37.7°C in Seoul during early July 2025[2][7]. Historical data shows July is typically Seoul’s hottest month, with average highs climbing from 81°F to 85°F and rarely dipping below 74°F[5], while July 2025 was the second-hottest on record nationwide with an average of 27.1°C[4].

Traders must monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, the official resolution source, as real-time data could reveal a spike contradicting the current zero-probability stance[2]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z, meaning any temperature surge before noon UTC will resolve the market[2]. Recent Anadolu Ajansı reports confirm Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July 2025, the highest for that period in 117 years, suggesting similar extremes remain possible[7]. With fog and overcast conditions currently at 77°F[6], the key dependency is whether the tropical night streak translates into a daytime peak exceeding 35°C, a threshold not yet ruled out by historical precedent.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.