Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak summer heat on 20 July 2026 hinges on whether the Incheon International Airport station records a temperature exceeding the current 0% crowd-implied threshold for a “YES” outcome. Historically, mid-July in Seoul sees average highs of 28°C, with the wettest month of the year bringing a 43% daily chance of precipitation that often suppresses peak temperatures [1]. The 0% probability suggests traders view a record-breaking or extreme high as virtually impossible, aligning with the typical 21–28°C range where rainfall and cloud cover frequently cap daytime highs.

Key catalysts include the hourly Wunderground temperature feed for RKSI, which will settle the market at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon pattern that could trigger unseasonal heatwaves. Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s daily history page, as a sudden drop in cloud cover or a surge in humidity could push temperatures above 30°C, though such events remain rare in July [1]. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, as this is a weather market, but the timing of the settlement window means late-evening UTC data will be critical for final resolution.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.