Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July climate is defined by intense heat and high humidity, with daily highs typically reaching 30°C (86°F) and often feeling like over 34°C (93°F) due to moisture levels above 80%[1][2]. The city sits in the middle of the monsoon season, making July the rainiest month in Korea, though rainfall usually arrives in short, heavy bursts rather than prolonged gloom[1][3]. Historical data shows average maximum temperatures hovering around 27.7°C (81.9°F), yet record-breaking events have pushed highs to 37.1°C (98.8°F) in recent years, the highest July temperature since 1908[4][7].

The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature falling in a specific range appears inconsistent with these established patterns, as even cooler spells rarely drop below 18°C after rain clears, while typical midday anchors remain near 27°C[3]. Traders should monitor upcoming heatwave announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which has already reported feels-like temperatures of 28°C under clear skies, alongside forecasts predicting record heat and torrential rains for the summer[6][8]. Key dependencies include the timing of the monsoon’s retreat, as southern coastal areas like Busan and Jeju remain relatively dry, potentially shifting heat concentration inland toward Seoul if the rain front lingers[1]. Recent interviews suggest temperatures are rising two to three weeks earlier than last year, a shift that could amplify July’s peak heat beyond historical norms[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.