Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine the settlement range for this market. Seoul's early summer weather typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C in early June, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement will rely on Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations from the airport station throughout the day.

Historical June temperature data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, 1 June highs have ranged from approximately 18°C during cooler years to 31°C during anomalously warm periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme scepticism about higher temperature ranges or a technical misunderstanding of the market structure. Comparable early-June days at Incheon typically cluster around 25–27°C, making mid-range outcomes statistically most likely.

The primary catalyst affecting settlement will be broader East Asian weather patterns in late May and early June 2026. The arrival or absence of warm air masses from the south, monsoon onset timing, and any early-season high-pressure systems will materially shift the day's maximum temperature. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding the settlement date, as these provide the most reliable guidance for regional temperature anomalies during this transitional period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.