Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is poised to experience its hottest June day in over a century, with meteorological records indicating a severe heatwave already gripping 59 cities across South Korea. Historical data shows that June 30, 2025, marked the hottest June day since modern records began in 1904, with average daily temperatures reaching 26.2°C in Busan and record-breaking highs in 59 locations[1]. In Seoul specifically, daily high temperatures typically climb from 77°F to 81°F during June, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet the current trend of extreme heat suggests a significant deviation from these norms[2]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a higher temperature range appears inconsistent with the established pattern of record-setting average daily temperatures observed in recent years[5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Weather Underground, the designated resolution source, as the settlement window closes on 30 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The highest temperature recorded for all times on this day at the Incheon International Airport Station will determine the outcome, with current forecasts suggesting daily highs ranging from 85°F to 91°F[8]. Recent reports confirm that South Korea recorded its hottest average June temperature ever since 1973, with an average of 22.9°C, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme conditions[5]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature, but the prevailing heatwave makes a record-breaking day highly probable[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.