Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 29 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Incheon International Airport Station, the official observation point for the metropolitan area. Late May in Seoul typically sits in the warm season, with daily highs ranging between 24–28°C as the region transitions toward summer monsoon patterns. The specific daily maximum will depend on atmospheric pressure systems and moisture levels in the preceding weeks.

Historical May data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 29 May ranged from 20°C to 29°C, with an average near 25°C. Cooler outcomes occurred when low-pressure systems brought cloud cover and rain; warmer readings aligned with high-pressure ridges and clear skies. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range boundaries or treating this as a calibration exercise given the long lead time to settlement.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks before late May 2026, particularly signals about early summer heat patterns and any anomalies in the East Asian jet stream. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could influence whether May leans toward above or below historical norms. Wunderground's historical archive will be the sole arbiter; readings are taken continuously throughout the day, with the highest recorded value determining settlement regardless of time of observation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.