Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather in late August sits at the tail end of the summer monsoon season, when the city typically experiences high temperatures and humidity. The historical average high for 20 August in Shanghai is approximately 32°C, though daily variation can be substantial depending on cloud cover, precipitation, and wind patterns from the East China Sea.

Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station provides the authoritative measurement for this market. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the recorded high. August temperatures in Shanghai have ranged from 28°C to 37°C in recent years on comparable dates, indicating meaningful variance in potential outcomes across the available resolution brackets.

Traders should monitor Shanghai's weather forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly any alerts regarding typhoon activity or unusual pressure systems that could suppress temperatures below seasonal norms. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 20 August, requiring resolution data to be available from Weather Underground's station records within hours of the market end time. Any discrepancies between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section will be resolved in favour of the former, as specified in the market terms.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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