Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is in the middle of its peak summer season, and July is typically the city’s hottest and rainiest month, with average highs around 32°C and humid conditions that can push feels-like readings higher. Forecast-style sources still show the possibility of much hotter daytime spikes, including maximum daytime temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, which is the range that usually matters for a daily high-temperature market.[1][3][4]

A 0% crowd-implied YES price is best read as a sign that the market is either very thin or sceptical about the exact threshold, not that extreme heat is impossible. The main historical frame is simple: Shanghai frequently reaches the low 30s in July, but the distribution is wide enough that a single hot, clear, high-pressure day can produce an outlier reading, especially if sunshine breaks through after overnight rain or cloud cover.[1][3][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are the short-range temperature forecast, whether showers clear early, and any shift in wind or humidity that changes daytime heating at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The settlement source is a specific airport station reading on Wunderground, so localised conditions at that site matter more than citywide averages; if the runway-side forecast trends towards the mid-30s Celsius or higher, probability can move quickly even from a low base.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.