Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, which will determine the resolution of this prediction market. Historical data for late June in Shanghai shows daily highs typically ranging between 30°C and 35°C on sunny days, with frequent rainfall often keeping temperatures below 35°C [3]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside a specific, likely very low, threshold. Given that late-June climatological averages hover near 28°C and daily highs rarely drop below 25°C even on cloudy days, a temperature below 24°C would be an extreme outlier for this period [5][6].

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast for Shanghai Pudong, specifically the intensity of the plum rain season and cloud cover, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature suppression [9]. While sunny days push highs to 35°C, heavy rainfall and cloudiness can restrict temperatures to the 25–30°C range [3]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day, meaning a brief heat spike could alter the outcome [2]. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, but the dependency on real-time meteorological conditions remains critical; any sudden shift in the rain pattern could invalidate the current 0% probability if the market threshold is indeed set unusually low [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.