Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?

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Market context

Shanghai has already warmed into late-spring conditions, but the temperature observed at Pudong airport will still depend on how much sun breaks through on the day and whether afternoon cloud or rain suppresses the peak. May in Shanghai typically sees highs in the low to mid-20s Celsius, with humid, changeable weather and frequent cloud cover. Recent long-run climatology and monthly guides put the usual range around 18°C to 25°C, with some days reaching the upper 20s when skies stay clear.

That backdrop makes a high in the upper 20s possible but not routine, which helps explain why a market sitting at 0% implied probability can still be vulnerable if forecasters have leaned too conservative. AccuWeather’s May guidance for Shanghai has shown a wide spread in daily highs, while WeatherSpark notes a majority-cloudy month, both of which point to a ceiling that is often limited by cloud and drizzle rather than by lack of seasonal warmth. On the other hand, once the city gets a dry, sunny afternoon, temperatures can climb quickly towards 28°C or above.

The main catalysts are the local forecast updates through the morning and early afternoon in Shanghai, especially any shift in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or wind direction around Pudong. Traders should watch whether convection or a passing shower arrives before the daily maximum is set, because even a brief wet spell can cap the high several degrees lower than the warm-season norm. Final resolution will come from the Wunderground history entry for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, so the market is most exposed to late revisions in the observed airport maximum rather than broader city forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.